The final battle of Nippon Professional Baseball’s Climax Series (CS) is finally here!
Starting tomorrow, October 15th, our beloved Central League champions, the Hanshin Tigers, will begin their Final Stage showdown for a spot in the Japan Series. The venue, of course, is the sacred ground of Koshien Stadium!
We analyze the short, must-win series from various perspectives as the Tigers aim to secure their long-awaited berth in the Japan Series.
The Opponent: The High-Flying Yokohama DeNA BayStars
The team challenging the Tigers is the Yokohama DeNA BayStars, who advanced by sweeping the Tokyo Giants in the First Stage.
As is tradition, the Final Stage gives the regular season champion, the Tigers, a one-win advantage.
The first team to reach a total of four wins (including the advantage) will be crowned the winner and move on to the Japan Series.
The Big Question: The Two-Week “Layoff” vs. The Challenger’s “Momentum”
The Tigers have been on a “rest” period for about two weeks since their final regular season game on October 2nd.
The BayStars, on the other hand, have just finished a tense, short series on October 11th and 12th and are in full battle mode.
It’s the age-old question in short-series baseball: “Rest” versus “Momentum.”
While the Tigers dominated the regular season, the two-week layoff raises a genuine concern about their “game sense” in a high-pressure, short series. Especially since the BayStars’ offense exploded in the First Stage, showing strong momentum in both pitching and hitting.
Even in the fortress of Koshien, the Tigers must brace themselves for a seriously tough fight.
🐯 The Tigers’ Overall Strength Appears Superior with Key Players Ready
Despite the momentum factor, the Tigers’ underlying strength is undeniable.
Their regular season record against the BayStars was a solid 14 wins, 8 losses, and 3 draws, suggesting the Tigers hold the overall advantage.
This Final Stage will be a clash of the Tigers’ powerful pitching staff, which underpinned their league title, against the surging BayStars’ offense.
It is truly a battle of “spear vs. shield.”
- Starting Pitcher Stability: Ace Shoki Murakami has been stellar against DeNA, clearing seven innings in all three of his regular season starts against them. Similarly, Hiroto Saiki boasts an ERA in the 1.00s over five starts in the same matchup. Saiki will be particularly motivated to avenge his loss to DeNA in last year’s First Stage.
- Fully Rested Bullpen: Crucially, the relievers who handle the “winning pattern,” such as Daichi Ishii and Masaru Iwasaki, are fully rested after the long break. This well-prepared bullpen is a huge advantage in a demanding series with back-to-back games.
- Offensive Catalyst: The key offensive player to watch is Teruaki Sato. Having often struggled in past Climax Series appearances, if he can unleash his power now, the atmosphere at Koshien will be electric.
Historical Data Points to the ‘Champion’s Advantage’
However, historical data strongly favors the Tigers’ path to the Japan Series.
Let’s look at the past CS Final Stages (from 2007 to last year):
- Central League: The 1st-place team won the stage 13 out of 17 times (a winning rate of 76.5%).
- Pacific League: The 1st-place team won the stage 15 out of 18 times (a winning rate of 83.3%).
- Combined Leagues: The league champion’s success rate in advancing to the Japan Series is a compelling 80% (28 wins out of 35 total stages)!
In other words, 80% of league champions successfully navigate this Final Stage. Conversely, the probability of a challenger (the First Stage winner) defeating the champion and reaching the Japan Series is only 20%.
Should we view this 20% as a low barrier for the Tigers, or should we see it as a reminder of the “terror of the short series” where momentum can defy the odds? While the data suggests the champion holds the advantage, history also shows that a challenger’s “momentum” can occasionally shatter that 80% wall.
The Key to Victory is Game 1
Despite the one-win advantage, the Tigers must avoid dropping the first game against the momentum-driven BayStars at all costs.
The series will hinge on whether the Tigers can utilize their regular season fundamental strength and their rested, powerful pitching staff to contain the challenger’s surge. Furthermore, can the Tigers’ offense find its rhythm early against a BayStars team fresh off a competitive series?
The intense battle for the Japan Series berth begins tomorrow.
Tiger fans, let’s cheer on the team from the stadium and at home to secure the statistically likely “80% victory”! Go Hanshin Tigers!
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